Global energy demand is projected to increase by 20% between 2024 and 2055, rising from 641 exajoules (EJ) to 768 EJ, according to forecasts presented by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) at African Energy Week 2026 in Cape Town, South Africa.
Abubakar Abbas, Senior Energy Forecast Analyst at the GECF, outlined the projections during the Energy Finance Forum on October 15, highlighting the anticipated roles of natural gas and renewable energy in meeting future energy needs. He attributed the expected increase in demand to economic and population growth, while emphasizing the need for sustained investment in energy production and supporting infrastructure.
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Natural gas is expected to remain an important component of the global energy mix, particularly in electricity generation. According to Abbas, the share of natural gas demand associated with power generation is projected to rise from 35% in 2024 to 39% by 2055. Its role in providing reliable and flexible electricity supply is expected to become increasingly relevant as renewable energy capacity expands.
The changing energy mix is also expected to reshape international gas trade. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to play a greater role in connecting producing regions with markets worldwide, while North America, Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America are expected to contribute to future supply. Demand growth is also anticipated across several regions, including Africa, the Middle East, Eurasia and North America.
However, meeting future demand will require substantial investment in new production. Abbas said 86% of global natural gas production projected for 2055 is expected to come from fields that are not currently producing. The forecast highlights the importance of exploration, resource development, financing and timely project execution to maintain supply over the coming decades.
For Africa, the investment implications are significant. Abbas estimated that the continent will require approximately $1 trillion in cumulative investment across the natural gas value chain to develop its resources and the infrastructure needed to bring gas to domestic and international markets.
The projected investment needs span the wider gas industry, from upstream exploration and production to processing, transportation, storage and export infrastructure. The scale of the requirement could create opportunities for energy companies, infrastructure developers, investors and financial institutions, while presenting governments with decisions about financing, regulation, domestic energy access and the long-term economic benefits of resource development.
For African economies, the challenge extends beyond increasing production. Developing natural gas resources could help strengthen domestic energy supply, support industrial activity and expand export earnings. Realizing these potential benefits, however, will depend on project economics, infrastructure availability, access to financing and the ability to translate energy resources into broader economic opportunities.
The GECF forecasts also point to a changing balance between fossil fuels. Demand for more carbon-intensive fuels, including coal, is expected to decline, while natural gas and renewable energy are projected to assume increasingly important roles in meeting global energy requirements. Abbas linked this evolution to wider environmental and sustainability objectives, including efforts to address energy poverty.
The outlook places financing at the centre of the energy debate. With much of the gas production expected by 2055 yet to come from fields not currently producing, investment decisions made over the coming years will influence the availability of future supply. For Africa, mobilizing the estimated $1 trillion will be a major undertaking, requiring coordination among governments, energy producers, development institutions and private investors.
The GECF projections present natural gas as a continuing part of the global energy outlook through 2055, alongside the expansion of renewable energy. For African countries seeking to develop their resources, the central question will be how to attract investment while ensuring that new projects contribute to reliable energy access, economic development and environmental objectives.