“The mass marketing of Bitcoin reminds us of the activity of stockbrokers in the run-up to the 1929 crash,” Paul Jackson, Invesco’s global head of asset allocation, said in a note on Monday as quoted by Business Insider.
“We think it is not too much of a stretch to imagine Bitcoin falling below $30,000 this year,” Jackson said, adding he believes there’s at least a 30% chance of it happening.
Bitcoin surged from around $33,000 at the start of last year to as high as $69,000 in November. It has since plummeted to trade at around $41,800 per token as of Tuesday.
According to Jackson, Bitcoin could be seen as a financial mania, which means steep losses may soon be on their way. “A loss of 45% is experienced in the 12 months after the peak of a typical financial mania,” he said.
If the digital asset follows that pattern, its price will fall to between $34,000 and $37,000 by October, Jackson said, noting that a steeper drop is possible to below $30,000.
However, that scenario is far from certain, he cautioned. “Last year, we spoke of Bitcoin falling below $10,000, but instead it reached a peak of around $68,000.”